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What this means. A wallet put $14.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 81% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+1.0 pts over 22 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$14.9k
BUY No @ 81¢ · 18,379 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet 0x8b4b…541b took No (buy) for $14.9k at an average 81¢. At that price the market implied a 81% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $14.9k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 81¢ means
81%chance the market gave
−426American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 81¢
- Implied odds
- 81.0%
- Size
- $14.9k
- Placed
- Feb 23, 10:28 EST
- Market close
- Mar 03, 19:58 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x8b4b…541b
- Tx
- 0xee3abe82…
This wallet's graded record
18/22+1.0 pts
expected 17.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -81 ptsNo price · entry 81¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |