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+$20.0kNo · avg 91.6¢ → 94.5¢ · $653.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$22.4kNo · avg 88¢ → 98¢ · $220.1k+$12.7kNo · avg 91.6¢ → 97.5¢ · $209.9k+$12.1kNo · avg 92.6¢ → 98.4¢ · $207.5k+$5,168No · avg 95.3¢ → 97.8¢ · $206.0k+$26.1kNo · avg 83¢ → 95.3¢ · $200.9k+$10.1kNo · avg 85¢ → 91.5¢ · $143.8k+$3,546No · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $132.4k
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 18 of 22. The prices it paid implied about 17.8 wins, so it did +1.0 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+1.0 pts over 22 bets). Without its single best bet: -0.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+1.0 pts
Called / graded
18/22
Expected from price
17.8
Flagged volume
$4.09M
Sample size22 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$5k22 graded bets in the order they resolved · 18 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? at 62¢) and the edge is -0.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 60% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 69% · n=2
80–100¢
94% vs 92% · n=17
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,035
Last 30 days +$80.2k · $45.93M volume · 37,404 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.10M
Open P&L · 81 positions
+$182.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
268d
912 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.6 | -12.8 pts |
| Other | 13 | 12 | 11.5 | +4.1 pts |
| Crypto | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +8.2 pts |
History
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?calledBUY No @ 92¢$20.8k
LOW PROVEN 0x8b4b…541b · 210d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?calledBUY No @ 87¢$34.8k
MED PROVEN 0x8b4b…541b · 217d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?calledBUY No @ 84¢$54.4k
MED PROVEN 0x8b4b…541b · 233d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?calledBUY No @ 84¢$18.9k
LOW PROVEN 0x8b4b…541b · 235d ago
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?calledBUY No @ 89¢$28.3k
MED PROVEN 0x8b4b…541b · 236d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?calledBUY No @ 75¢$10.7k
LOW PROVEN 0x8b4b…541b · 237d ago
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