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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -9.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$163.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$141.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $35.90M volume · 83,432 trades · since Oct 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.89M
Open P&L · 1 positions
+$3,220
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
366d
5724 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -17.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $11.9k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $36.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 14¢ | $46.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $50.5k | missed |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $19.2k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb63ac0…