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What this means. A wallet put $50.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 41% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$50.5k
BUY No @ 41¢ · 123,061 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet plzdontdropout took No (buy) for $50.5k at an average 41¢. At that price the market implied a 41% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $50.5k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 41¢ means
41%chance the market gave
+144American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 41¢
- Implied odds
- 41.0%
- Size
- $50.5k
- Placed
- Feb 26, 00:22 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 04:34 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- plzdontdropout
- Tx
- 0x90518c79…
This wallet's graded record
2/3-9.7 pts
expected 2.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -41 ptsNo price · entry 41¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $38.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $106.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |