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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$566.6k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$84.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.34M volume · 276 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$84.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
80%
46 closed
Wallet age · markets
361d
44 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 10¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $50.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $50.0k 2.5× usual |
missed |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $11.1k | called |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $38.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $42.1k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $30.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $49.5k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $50.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $50.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
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