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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -29.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.3 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$107.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $815.0k volume · 258 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$38.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
75%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
363d
53 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -46.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -12.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $12.8k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $28.1k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $19.2k | called |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $20.3k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2123ba…