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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +1.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$455.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$162.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.31M volume · 2,516 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$264.4k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$426.3k
Closed-position win rate
56%
107 closed
Wallet age · markets
598d
110 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -11.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +14.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $71.3k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ | $87.2k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ | $68.2k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.6¢ | $43.8k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
 Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $13.3k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $44.9k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY No @ 11¢ | $73.9k | missed |
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