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+$1,003No · avg 94.7¢ → 96¢ · $71.9k+$665No · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $6,665
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -80.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-80.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$102.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$79.5k
Last 30 days +$565 · $402.3k volume · 179 trades · since Jan 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$105
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$83.7k
Closed-position win rate
71%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
275d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | -80.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $32.0k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $55.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xde4783…