← Wallets
+$1,099No · avg 72¢ → 74¢ · $51.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$14.6kNo · avg 57¢ → 91.5¢ · $39.0k+$5,471No · avg 57¢ → 78¢ · $20.3k−$3,549No · avg 32¢ → 26¢ · $18.5k+$1,214Yes · avg 22¢ → 24¢ · $14.3k−$500No · avg 68¢ → 66¢ · $13.1k−$600Yes · avg 68¢ → 65¢ · $13.0k+$3,912No · avg 55¢ → 92.5¢ · $9,620
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -1.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.3 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$709.0k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$12k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Jaguars vs. Bengals at 44¢) and the edge is -8.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 22% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 53% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$737.3k
Last 30 days +$419.9k · $28.99M volume · 45,726 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.04M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$2.24M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
490d
2115 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 4.0 | -0.3 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -9.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 LoL: Team Secret Whales vs LYON (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY Team Secret Whales @ 43¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
| LoL: LOS vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY T1 @ 90¢ | $56.5k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY CTBC Flying Oyster @ 28¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY Karmine Corp @ 32¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 82¢ | $32.8k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 62¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pacers @ 58¢ | $11.6k | called |
| Spread: Magic (-2.5) | LOW BUY Hawks @ 51¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 51¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
 Commanders vs. 49ers | LOW BUY Commanders @ 22¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 50¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In | LOW BUY Karmine Corp @ 63¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 57¢ | $17.1k | missed |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | LOW BUY LGD Gaming @ 50¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | LOW BUY JD Gaming @ 52¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 52¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
 Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | LOW BUY Cleveland Guardians @ 59¢ | $11.8k | missed |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 44¢ | $19.8k | called |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Jets @ 40¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner | LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 69¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 66¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 65¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $17.3k | called |
 Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $34.9k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $16.8k | missed |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $66.9k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $29.9k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
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