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foodenjoyer

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 15. The prices it paid implied about 11.2 wins, so it did +11.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 15 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

No · Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+11.7 pts
Called / graded
13/15
Expected from price
11.2
Flagged volume
$8.20M
Sample size15 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$165k
15 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$30k$0$165k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul at 64¢) and the edge is +9.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 74% · n=6
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.20M
Last 30 days +$138.8k · $53.95M volume · 14,389 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$1.59M
Open P&L · 28 positions
−$557.5k
Closed-position win rate
53%
138 closed
Wallet age · markets
268d
124 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy986.2+20.5 pts
Other211.3-12.8 pts
Crypto443.8+3.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $99.6k
3.3× usual
0% 2d agopending
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $22.6k92% 2d agopending
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $35.8k86% 37d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $42.0k89% 38d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $37.7k88% 38d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 89¢ $138.3k
4.5× usual
89% 38d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 88¢ $29.8k12% 39d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ $16.6k83% 39d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $40.2k81% 42d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $203.1k
6.6× usual
0% 48d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢ $17.0k41% 50d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $15.7k45% 55d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ $64.0k
2.1× usual
67% 59d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 33¢ $15.9k33% 63d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ $18.9k30% 63d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 30¢ $20.0k30% 63d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ $16.8k27% 64d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 28¢ $13.3k28% 64d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $30.6k71% 65d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $56.7k72% 65d agomissed
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $249.8k
8.2× usual
100% 71d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ $35.6k68% 72d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ $11.9k53% 77d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 54¢ $32.2k54% 77d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 47¢ $76.6k
2.5× usual
47% 85d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ $140.4k
4.6× usual
41% 85d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ $12.8k56% 86d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY No @ 58¢ $372.4k
12.2× usual
58% 86d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $10.9k76% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $23.0k76% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $47.2k76% 87d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 73¢ $49.0k73% 88d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 74¢ $202.2k
6.6× usual
74% 88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $17.8k71% 88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $29.1k76% 90d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $18.6k76% 90d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $13.0k75% 91d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $11.8k75% 92d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $24.3k74% 92d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $78.0k
2.6× usual
72% 92d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 75¢ $112.8k
3.7× usual
75% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ $97.9k
3.2× usual
81% 94d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $11.1k82% 94d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $67.0k
2.2× usual
95% 100d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 88¢ $181.5k
5.9× usual
88% 101d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $83.8k
2.7× usual
79% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ $14.5k64% 102d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 64¢ $19.8k64% 102d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $36.2k63% 102d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $204.2k
6.7× usual
100% 102d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $26.3k62% 102d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 23¢ $10.3k23% 103d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $67.2k
2.2× usual
76% 107d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $25.7k77% 107d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 15¢ $67.3k
2.2× usual
15% 109d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 9¢ $34.2k9% 112d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $500.6k
16.4× usual
100% 113d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $335.2k
11.0× usual
83% 113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ $44.4k83% 113d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $118.8k
3.9× usual
100% 114d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ $69.2k
2.3× usual
99% 135d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $249.3k
8.2× usual
100% 140d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $70.8k
2.3× usual
99% 140d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k99% 143d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 70¢ $17.4k30% 178d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $15.2k0% 179d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $106.4k
3.5× usual
97% 181d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $38.9k97% 181d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ $45.1k98% 192d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $107.6k
3.5× usual
100% 195d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $19.9k98% 196d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $40.0k98% 197d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $149.7k
4.9× usual
100% 198d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $159.7k
5.2× usual
100% 198d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $26.4k99% 199d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ $41.1k98% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $543.5k
17.8× usual
99% 200d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $14.5k99% 201d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 89¢ $18.6k11% 205d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 42¢ $16.9k42% 206d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $54.1k78% 211d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $31.7k72% 219d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $15.2k97% 219d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 95.5¢ $27.6k96% 221d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $54.2k72% 221d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $11.3k1% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.5¢ $49.6k2% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $11.4k95% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $143.3k
4.7× usual
98% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL Yes @ 97.5¢ $143.4k
4.7× usual
3% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.3¢ $82.0k
2.7× usual
3% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $10.9k98% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ $67.0k
2.2× usual
95% 237d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 94.9¢ $23.6k5% 237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $14.3k93% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ $70.0k
2.3× usual
89% 237d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 29¢ $14.5k29% 237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL Yes @ 55¢ $49.7k45% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL Yes @ 75¢ $41.4k25% 237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ $15.3k82% 239d agomissed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 41¢ $17.4k41% 239d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $16.5k18% 240d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ $15.4k97% 240d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $21.7k97% 240d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ $13.9k82% 240d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $13.0k99% 240d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ $45.6k96% 240d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ $25.5k97% 240d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 84¢ $67.5k
2.2× usual
16% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 42¢ $24.1k42% 243d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ $23.0k22% 243d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $12.0k72% 246d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ $27.9k22% 246d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $85.0k
2.8× usual
79% 247d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ $16.2k85% 253d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $38.7k18% 254d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $13.8k60% 255d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $15.3k21% 255d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $66.6k
2.2× usual
96% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $11.8k78% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $30.6k74% 260d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 7¢ $19.3k7% 261d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $16.2k21% 262d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $42.8k77% 262d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 9¢ $18.8k9% 262d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $44.0k79% 262d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ $13.5k16% 262d agocalled
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 64¢ $13.1k36% 262d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $24.3k94% 263d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $209.0k
6.8× usual
100% 264d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $30.5k98% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 53¢ $15.2k53% 267d agomissed

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