Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$80
Return on staked
+5.3%
Bets
13/15 won
Edge vs price
+11.7 pts ±9.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -2.4 pts (5/7). Newer half: +24.0 pts (8/8).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 02, 09:36 ESTJul 28, 04:19 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 74¢ | called | 88d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 76¢ | called | 90d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 75¢ | called | 92d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 82¢ | called | 94d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 79¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 64¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 77¢ | called | 107d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | called | 114d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 30¢ | missed | 178d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | 97¢ | called | 181d ago |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | 96¢ | called | 221d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | 96¢ | called | 240d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | 97¢ | called | 240d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | 7¢ | missed | 261d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | 94¢ | called | 263d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.