Arbguy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 15 of 23. The prices it paid implied about 15.0 wins, so it did -0.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$6,319Yes · avg 23¢ → 18¢ · $28.8k Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$5,936Yes · avg 45¢ → 36¢ · $26.9k Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$11.9kYes · avg 0.7¢ → 1.4¢ · $22.6k Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$9,020Yes · avg 48¢ → 32¢ · $18.7k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,671Yes · avg 83¢ → 91.5¢ · $17.9k Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$1,009Yes · avg 1.3¢ → 1.5¢ · $12.9k US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$264No · avg 24¢ → 24¢ · $12.4k Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?−$33.7kYes · avg 87¢ → 20¢ · $9,743

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Not No · Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

-0.0 pts

Called / graded

15/23

Expected from price

15.0

Flagged volume

$2.46M

Sample size23 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.8 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$107k

23 graded bets in the order they resolved · 15 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? at 17¢) and the edge is -3.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

33% vs 13% · n=3

20–40¢

33% vs 26% · n=3

40–60¢

0% vs 41% · n=1

60–80¢

75% vs 74% · n=4

80–100¢

83% vs 87% · n=12

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$409.0k

Last 30 days +$13.6k · $63.63M volume · 27,309 trades · since Jul 03, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	2	1	0.9	+6.0 pts
Other	17	14	11.7	+13.3 pts
Sports	3	0	2.1	-69.2 pts
Crypto	1	0	0.3	-31.0 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	MED SELL No @ 91¢	$32.2k	9%	7h ago	pending
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 95.4¢	$56.9k 3.1× usual	5%	82d ago	missed
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$11.7k	92%	83d ago	excluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$11.7k	95%	92d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$15.1k	68%	92d ago	called
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$12.9k	93%	93d ago	called
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$10.2k	84%	96d ago	missed
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 41¢	$10.2k	41%	96d ago	missed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 91¢	$18.5k	9%	105d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$15.6k	78%	105d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$18.8k	75%	119d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$25.6k	73%	122d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$27.6k	79%	122d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$10.5k	81%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢	$14.8k	24%	150d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 89¢	$23.8k	11%	157d ago	missed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	MED SELL No @ 93¢	$38.0k 2.1× usual	7%	163d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$12.6k	84%	167d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$27.9k	87%	167d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$35.2k	0%	167d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$34.5k	0%	167d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$11.9k	95%	168d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$28.6k	98%	179d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 91.5¢	$45.8k 2.5× usual	92%	183d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢	$18.2k	85%	184d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢	$21.7k	35%	185d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 75¢	$13.6k	25%	190d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$38.6k 2.1× usual	84%	190d ago	called
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$11.9k	1%	191d ago	excluded
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97¢	$11.6k	97%	192d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$94.0k 5.1× usual	94%	194d ago	called
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	MED BUY No @ 90.7¢	$45.3k 2.4× usual	91%	195d ago	called
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$12.4k	71%	195d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 63¢	$15.7k	63%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 50¢	$43.0k 2.3× usual	50%	205d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢	$20.4k	22%	205d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$13.9k	80%	206d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢	$62.4k 3.4× usual	41%	206d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$32.1k	87%	207d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$15.5k	59%	210d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$11.1k	7%	213d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$24.1k	1%	214d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢	$10.7k	20%	217d ago	missed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 90¢	$29.4k	10%	217d ago	missed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$29.8k	91%	217d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢	$15.0k	90%	217d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢	$20.3k	2%	218d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$24.4k	97%	218d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 97¢	$48.9k 2.6× usual	3%	219d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$69.1k 3.7× usual	97%	220d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	MED SELL Yes @ 25¢	$41.3k 2.2× usual	75%	221d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 28¢	$13.1k	28%	223d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 32¢	$14.1k	32%	227d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 28¢	$11.8k	72%	227d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢	$30.5k	75%	228d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 28¢	$13.2k	72%	228d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢	$14.9k	38%	231d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$12.3k	35%	231d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$190.7k 10.3× usual	86%	232d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$100.1k 5.4× usual	86%	232d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.7¢	$13.9k	98%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢	$19.5k	98%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 84¢	$58.2k 3.1× usual	84%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢	$10.1k	84%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 82¢	$83.4k 4.5× usual	18%	244d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$34.0k	80%	245d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$96.9k 5.2× usual	77%	245d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 24¢	$64.3k 3.5× usual	76%	245d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢	$16.9k	20%	249d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢	$13.3k	17%	249d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢	$12.1k	18%	249d ago	excluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢	$22.0k	2%	251d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	LOW BUY Yes @ 31¢	$12.8k	31%	256d ago	missed
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)	LOW SELL Seahawks @ 50¢	$15.0k	50%	257d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 94.3¢	$27.7k	6%	265d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$10.0k	91%	266d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 83¢	$34.6k	17%	266d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$12.5k	7%	266d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$14.3k	85%	266d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$13.0k	71%	266d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$27.2k	86%	267d ago	called
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)	LOW BUY Seahawks @ 50¢	$12.5k	50%	269d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢	$11.2k	21%	270d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$26.1k	77%	271d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢	$10.6k	45%	282d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢	$28.0k	80%	282d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 10¢	$10.0k	10%	289d ago	missed

Arbguy

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

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