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What this means. A wallet put $27.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 87% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$27.9k
BUY No @ 87¢ · 32,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took No (buy) for $27.9k at an average 87¢. At that price the market implied a 87% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $27.9k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 87¢ means
87%chance the market gave
−689American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 87¢
- Implied odds
- 87.3%
- Size
- $27.9k
- Placed
- May 09, 16:09 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x26e7edfb…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +13 ptsNo price · entry 87¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $58.4k | excluded |