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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -33.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-33.9 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$211.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$25.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.85M volume · 5,187 trades · since Apr 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$16.4k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$9,262
Closed-position win rate
24%
171 closed
Wallet age · markets
204d
117 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -84.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +16.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $11.3k | called |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $69.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 93.1¢ | $43.3k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $31.9k | missed |
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