elmcap2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +3.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$1.18MNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $3.18M Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$1.18MYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $822.0k Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$614No · avg 95.5¢ → 95.4¢ · $371.4k Trump out as President before 2027?+$11.1kNo · avg 92.6¢ → 95.8¢ · $343.1k Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?+$3,400Yes · avg 96.8¢ → 98.3¢ · $223.7k Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$960No · avg 96.9¢ → 97.4¢ · $203.3k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$18.0kNo · avg 88¢ → 97.5¢ · $194.2k New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? +$7,737No · avg 91.4¢ → 97.7¢ · $120.5k

Price-adjusted edge

+3.7 pts

Called / graded

3/3

Expected from price

2.9

Flagged volume

$24.57M

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$2.16M

Last 30 days −$9,906 · $298.47M volume · 88,528 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$213.6k 4.3× usual	99%	37d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.3¢	$493.8k 9.8× usual	99%	38d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$34.0k	100%	54d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	55d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$46.3k	100%	58d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$23.7k	100%	58d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$49.4k	100%	86d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$280.7k 5.6× usual	100%	87d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$999.0k 19.9× usual	100%	93d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$149.7k 3.0× usual	100%	94d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$11.8k	95%	96d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$283.8k 5.7× usual	100%	108d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$569.9k 11.4× usual	100%	111d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$50.6k	100%	114d ago	excluded
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$12.5k	100%	118d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$12.6k	100%	120d ago	excluded
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$10.1k	100%	121d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$999.0k 19.9× usual	0%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$55.4k	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$718.1k 14.3× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢	$25.9k	99%	130d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$29.3k	100%	130d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$63.9k	100%	132d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$50.6k	99%	134d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢	$64.2k	99%	139d ago	excluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$242.5k 4.8× usual	0%	141d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.4¢	$897.4k 17.9× usual	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$296.2k 5.9× usual	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$239.2k 4.8× usual	0%	144d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$112.6k 2.2× usual	100%	146d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$70.8k	100%	147d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$10.6k	99%	149d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$63.1k	99%	151d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$14.8k	98%	151d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$60.3k	1%	154d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$78.7k	99%	155d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$128.9k 2.6× usual	100%	155d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$166.6k 3.3× usual	100%	155d ago	excluded
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$87.4k	99%	155d ago	excluded
Trump kiss by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$204.0k 4.1× usual	100%	155d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$13.0k	100%	157d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$35.5k	98%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	MED SELL No @ 96.8¢	$53.4k	3%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW SELL No @ 97.1¢	$36.4k	3%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	MED SELL No @ 97.4¢	$118.9k 2.4× usual	3%	159d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 4.0× usual	100%	161d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$53.3k	100%	162d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$27.7k	99%	162d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$98.2k	100%	164d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$120.6k 2.4× usual	99%	165d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$22.8k	99%	166d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$32.8k	99%	166d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$152.6k 3.0× usual	100%	168d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	MED SELL No @ 96.7¢	$69.2k	3%	171d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$45.6k	98%	171d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$13.6k	100%	172d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$4.49M 89.5× usual	100%	177d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$350.0k 7.0× usual	100%	177d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$42.1k	99%	180d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$997.0k 19.9× usual	100%	181d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$100.9k 2.0× usual	99%	181d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$33.0k	100%	182d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$23.8k	100%	182d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$15.2k	97%	182d ago	called
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$69.7k	100%	184d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$46.0k	99%	184d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$41.7k	99%	184d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$23.0k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$22.4k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$32.1k	99%	186d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$389.3k 7.8× usual	100%	189d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$32.9k	99%	189d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$52.3k	99%	191d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢	$34.0k	99%	191d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$23.8k	99%	191d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$48.8k	99%	192d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$40.0k	99%	193d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$22.7k	99%	194d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$398.0k 7.9× usual	100%	198d ago	excluded
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$255.3k 5.1× usual	0%	198d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢	$18.2k	2%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$334.6k 6.7× usual	100%	199d ago	excluded
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$399.6k 8.0× usual	0%	199d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢	$11.3k	1%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢	$36.7k	1%	200d ago	excluded
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$13.3k	100%	201d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$14.0k	100%	202d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$15.4k	99%	202d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$14.8k	100%	203d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$49.7k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$47.2k	98%	206d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$14.6k	99%	206d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$11.9k	97%	207d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$58.5k	100%	207d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$11.6k	98%	207d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$64.3k	98%	208d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$46.7k	97%	209d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$43.7k	98%	212d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$27.4k	99%	214d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$17.2k	99%	217d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$36.2k	99%	218d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$12.3k	99%	219d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$16.7k	99%	219d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$21.6k	99%	219d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$400.9k 8.0× usual	100%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$373.2k 7.4× usual	100%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.1¢	$35.2k	97%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED SELL Yes @ 93.1¢	$51.5k	7%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$14.4k	96%	237d ago	excluded
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢	$14.6k	95%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$235.5k 4.7× usual	90%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$13.8k	99%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 80¢	$71.1k	20%	238d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$24.0k	100%	265d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$44.4k	100%	265d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$207.5k 4.1× usual	100%	265d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$99.2k	100%	266d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$105.0k 2.1× usual	100%	266d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$125.6k 2.5× usual	100%	267d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$47.6k	100%	267d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$10.4k	100%	268d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$128.1k 2.6× usual	100%	268d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$125.1k 2.5× usual	100%	268d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$858.9k 17.1× usual	100%	269d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$822.0k 16.4× usual	100%	269d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$860.8k 17.2× usual	99%	269d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$99.0k	99%	269d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 99¢	$601.3k 12.0× usual	99%	272d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢	$155.9k 3.1× usual	99%	273d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$18.0k	99%	284d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$40.1k	98%	284d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$73.9k	98%	284d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$11.1k	97%	285d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$37.7k	98%	286d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.9¢	$43.2k	97%	287d ago	called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	MED SELL No @ 99.6¢	$392.0k 7.8× usual	0%	295d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$322.8k 6.4× usual	99%	316d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$149.6k 3.0× usual	100%	331d ago	excluded

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.9	+5.1 pts
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.1 pts
Economy	1	1	1.0	+3.1 pts

elmcap2

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