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What this means. A wallet put $19.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.5k
BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took Yes (buy) for $19.5k at an average 97.6¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.5k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4062American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.6¢
- Implied odds
- 97.6%
- Size
- $19.5k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 16:57 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x7221b6b4…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.1k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |