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borntoolate.eth

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +11.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+11.3 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$1.63M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$144.5k
Last 30 days +$214 · $29.24M volume · 19,522 trades · since Mar 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.66M
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$2,648
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
588d
935 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports221.8+11.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $44.9k99% 107d agoexcluded
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $22.1k100% 109d agoexcluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $109.1k
2.4× usual
100% 109d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $239.6k
5.3× usual
100% 109d agoexcluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Egypt @ 50¢ $33.7k50% 109d agoexcluded
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $61.1k96% 110d agocalled
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $66.0k99% 111d agoexcluded
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Argentina @ 99.9¢ $27.3k100% 112d agoexcluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 81¢ $92.2k
2.1× usual
81% 112d agocalled
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $195.8k
4.4× usual
98% 116d agoexcluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 23¢ $28.2k77% 117d agocalled
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 24¢ $44.5k24% 117d agomissed
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $10.6k99% 117d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $101.8k
2.3× usual
100% 129d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $194.0k
4.3× usual
1% 145d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $83.5k100% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $22.1k0% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ $31.7k95% 238d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $25.1k100% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $169.7k
3.8× usual
100% 264d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $27.5k99% 333d agoexcluded

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