Predictandbreathe

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?+$749No · avg 53¢ → 60¢ · $6,051 Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?−$1,283No · avg 34¢ → 18¢ · $1,400 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?−$469Yes · avg 20¢ → 14¢ · $1,120 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?−$149Yes · avg 19¢ → 16¢ · $907 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?+$220Yes · avg 25¢ → 40¢ · $602 Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?−$2,282Yes · avg 26¢ → 4.5¢ · $475 Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?−$1,123Yes · avg 32¢ → 9.5¢ · $475 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$25Yes · avg 39¢ → 36¢ · $365

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$117.7k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$143.8k

Last 30 days +$9,442 · $21.07M volume · 59,165 trades · since Sep 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 450 closed

+$955.3k

Open P&L · 113 positions

−$52.4k

Closed-position win rate

100%

450 closed

Wallet age · markets

782d

3206 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes	LOW SELL Illinois Fighting Illini @ 99.9¢	$10.5k	0%	209d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$40.0k 2.4× usual	0%	234d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 80¢	$13.8k	20%	238d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢	$20.0k	1%	265d ago	excluded
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$10.0k	0%	268d ago	excluded
Patriots vs. Broncos	LOW SELL Patriots @ 99.9¢	$23.5k	0%	271d ago	excluded

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesexcluded

SELL Illinois Fighting Illini @ 99.9¢$10.5k

LOW Predictandbreathe · 209d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$40.0k

LOW Predictandbreathe · 234d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 80¢$13.8k

LOW Predictandbreathe · 238d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.4¢$20.0k

LOW Predictandbreathe · 265d ago

Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$10.0k

LOW Predictandbreathe · 268d ago

Patriots vs. Broncosexcluded

SELL Patriots @ 99.9¢$23.5k

LOW Predictandbreathe · 271d ago

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