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What this means. A wallet put $10.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 84% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.2k
BUY No @ 84¢ · 12,120 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took No (buy) for $10.2k at an average 84¢. At that price the market implied a 84% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.2k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 84¢ means
84%chance the market gave
−521American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 84¢
- Implied odds
- 83.9%
- Size
- $10.2k
- Placed
- Jul 19, 17:33 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 31, 19:59 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0xa5982374…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $33.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $14.2k | excluded |