← Wallets
−$3,418Yes · avg 80¢ → 74¢ · $43.1k+$1,922No · avg 77¢ → 82¢ · $32.0k+$5,979Yes · avg 52¢ → 64¢ · $31.9k+$10.2kNo · avg 41¢ → 66¢ · $26.4k−$16.8kYes · avg 63¢ → 34¢ · $19.3k+$1,037No · avg 76¢ → 80¢ · $18.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$5,360No · avg 41¢ → 88¢ · $10.1k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$900Yes · avg 6¢ → 5.5¢ · $9,900
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +21.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +19.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+21.4 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$1.41M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$26k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 69¢) and the edge is +19.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$294.0k
Last 30 days −$4,515 · $29.39M volume · 30,870 trades · since Nov 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.38M
Open P&L · 44 positions
−$74.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
720d
3910 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 5 | 3.9 | +21.4 pts |
History
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