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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did +81.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+81.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$345.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$57.2k
Last 30 days −$0 · $4.18M volume · 1,693 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$7,423
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$49.7k
Closed-position win rate
79%
58 closed
Wallet age · markets
148d
60 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | +81.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $33.5k | excluded |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $66.1k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $46.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $69.2k | excluded |
 Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $99.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $15.8k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe1e105…