← Live flags
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Resolved: Yes
Flags
31
Net whale flow → Yes
+$234.9k
Yes 7d ago → now
—
Category
Other
Live on this marketconnecting…
Loading the latest $10k+ trades from Polymarket…
Straight from Polymarket's public trade feed, refreshed every 10s while this tab is open. Grades appear after markets resolve. Information, not advice.
Who's on each side
Whale money on this market, split by track record. Proven wallets beat the price over 20+ graded bets; losing wallets clearly lost to it. Everyone else is unrated.
| Side | All whales | Proven | Losing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | $394.3k 17 flags |
none | $26.3k 1 wallet |
| No | $117.3k 7 flags |
none | none |
| Not Yes | $77.0k 5 flags |
none | none |
| Not No | $34.8k 2 flags |
none | none |
A proven wallet on a side is a reason to look closer, not a verdict. Records come from past bets; see how to use this. Information, not advice.
Flags on this market
| Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $33.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 92.7¢ | $90.5k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 85¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 82¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 43¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 92.2¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 93.5¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 90.6¢ | $21.8k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $38.2k | missed |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $12.7k | called |
| LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $10.2k | missed |
Summary
WhaleGrader has logged 31 whale trades on this market totalling $623.5k from 21 wallets. The largest was $90.5k (buy Yes at 92.7¢). Most whale money ($394.3k) went to Yes. 19 of 31 graded flags here called the outcome. The biggest whale here, ImJustKen ($129.3k), has called 6 of 12 graded flags overall (+1.4 pts vs price).
Market data from Polymarket (us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-31-20260715194822045).