← Wallets
+$103.6kYes · avg 65¢ → 82¢ · $494.0k+$11.7kNo · avg 78¢ → 82¢ · $236.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$981Yes · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $141.4k−$6,531Yes · avg 72¢ → 66¢ · $81.9k+$411No · avg 83¢ → 83¢ · $75.5k−$38No · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $5,767+$516Yes · avg 76¢ → 88¢ · $3,943+$287Yes · avg 78¢ → 88¢ · $2,622
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did +13.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +11.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+13.8 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$512.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$10k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? at 77¢) and the edge is +11.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$797.5k
Last 30 days +$79.9k · $16.43M volume · 6,780 trades · since Feb 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$966.9k
Open P&L · 53 positions
−$123.2k
Closed-position win rate
81%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
265d
481 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 5 | 4.3 | +13.8 pts |
History
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