← Wallets
+$124.4kYes · avg 52¢ → 80¢ · $354.8k+$18.7kNo · avg 67¢ → 80¢ · $114.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$602Yes · avg 82¢ → 86¢ · $15.0k−$562Yes · avg 72¢ → 66¢ · $5,801−$1,260Yes · avg 46¢ → 34¢ · $3,633+$52No · avg 82¢ → 83¢ · $3,398+$11Yes · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $2,501+$73Yes · avg 82¢ → 89¢ · $979
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -13.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-13.1 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$333.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$19k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? at 82¢) and the edge is -21.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
80–100¢
75% vs 90% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$41.9k
Last 30 days +$63.6k · $6.14M volume · 3,748 trades · since Jan 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$103.3k
Open P&L · 49 positions
−$91.4k
Closed-position win rate
85%
313 closed
Wallet age · markets
266d
351 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 3 | 3.7 | -13.1 pts |
History
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