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tetrose

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 6.8 wins, so it did +1.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,267No · avg 71¢ → 72¢ · $86.6k · 1 proven with, 0 againstUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+$250No · avg 21¢ → 22¢ · $34.8kWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$32.5kYes · avg 2.2¢ → 51¢ · $34.0kWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?+$8,518Yes · avg 9.7¢ → 20¢ · $16.9kWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?+$2,371Yes · avg 33¢ → 38¢ · $16.6kIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$2,654No · avg 17¢ → 14¢ · $14.8kNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?−$8,767Yes · avg 29¢ → 18¢ · $13.9kWill the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?+$1,787No · avg 33¢ → 39¢ · $11.6k
Price-adjusted edge
+1.6 pts
Called / graded
7/14
Expected from price
6.8
Flagged volume
$1.67M
Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.8 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$85k
14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$93k$0
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? at 39¢) and the edge is -2.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=4
20–40¢
25% vs 33% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$150.7k
Last 30 days −$39.3k · $60.27M volume · 27,306 trades · since Sep 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.43M
Open P&L · 327 positions
−$789.7k
Closed-position win rate
61%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
399d
698 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other1265.6+3.1 pts
Politics211.1-7.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ $10.3k87% 34d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?MED SELL Yes @ 75¢ $34.5k
2.2× usual
25% 35d agomissed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $23.7k79% 35d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $40.5k
2.5× usual
76% 36d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $62.7k
3.9× usual
0% 73d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $12.8k97% 74d agocalled
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 58¢ $14.4k58% 81d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $25.2k98% 82d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $11.2k96% 83d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW SELL Yes @ 70¢ $22.6k30% 92d agoexcluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ $12.5k37% 93d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ $11.3k60% 96d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ $31.2k22% 104d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ $15.9k13% 104d agomissed
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $17.6k0% 110d agoexcluded
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $18.4k97% 111d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ $78.0k
4.9× usual
78% 114d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ $18.9k80% 114d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢ $14.4k24% 122d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL Yes @ 8¢ $13.0k92% 127d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $152.9k
9.6× usual
0% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $89.8k
5.7× usual
1% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?HIGH SELL Yes @ 95¢ $167.6k
10.5× usual
5% 130d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED SELL Yes @ 94.1¢ $28.2k6% 135d agoexcluded
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 66¢ $11.8k34% 139d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢ $31.1k68% 151d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ $22.2k39% 151d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 66¢ $12.1k34% 152d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 67¢ $12.3k67% 152d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ $17.7k22% 152d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 24¢ $23.6k76% 152d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢ $11.5k32% 153d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ $14.0k79% 154d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ $10.2k19% 156d agomissed
Will Trump visit China by May 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 92.8¢ $13.9k93% 166d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ $16.3k84% 168d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 61¢ $12.1k39% 168d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 8¢ $12.9k8% 169d agomissed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ $10.5k35% 175d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 8¢ $11.3k8% 177d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $49.6k
3.1× usual
1% 183d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 90¢ $13.4k10% 183d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $29.9k100% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $41.6k
2.6× usual
2% 187d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $19.8k1% 189d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $19.7k98% 191d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $26.6k98% 192d agoexcluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $10.4k79% 193d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 82¢ $23.4k18% 203d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ $16.2k54% 205d agocalled
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 30¢ $11.4k70% 253d agomissed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ $10.9k39% 261d agocalled
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 35¢ $12.1k65% 263d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $37.0k
2.3× usual
74% 271d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 24¢ $14.0k24% 271d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ $47.1k
3.0× usual
22% 271d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢ $14.5k29% 272d agomissed
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $11.1k21% 278d agomissed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ $11.3k52% 278d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 65¢ $44.1k
2.8× usual
35% 281d agomissed
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 11¢ $12.8k89% 292d agocalled
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 63¢ $12.1k37% 293d agomissed
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 91.2¢ $13.8k91% 293d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 87¢$10.3k
LOW tetrose · 34d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed
SELL Yes @ 75¢$34.5k
MED tetrose · 35d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 79¢$23.7k
LOW tetrose · 35d ago
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY Yes @ 76¢$40.5k
LOW tetrose · 36d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$62.7k
LOW tetrose · 73d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$12.8k
LOW tetrose · 74d ago
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 58¢$14.4k
LOW tetrose · 81d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$25.2k
LOW tetrose · 82d ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?called
BUY Yes @ 96¢$11.2k
LOW tetrose · 83d ago
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?excluded
SELL Yes @ 70¢$22.6k
LOW tetrose · 92d ago
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?excluded
BUY Yes @ 37¢$12.5k
LOW tetrose · 93d ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?called
BUY Yes @ 60¢$11.3k
LOW tetrose · 96d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 78¢$31.2k
MED tetrose · 104d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?missed
BUY Yes @ 13¢$15.9k
LOW tetrose · 104d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$17.6k
LOW tetrose · 110d ago
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$18.4k
LOW tetrose · 111d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 78¢$78.0k
LOW tetrose · 114d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 20¢$18.9k
LOW tetrose · 114d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 24¢$14.4k
LOW tetrose · 122d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
SELL Yes @ 8¢$13.0k
LOW tetrose · 127d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$152.9k
LOW tetrose · 128d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$89.8k
LOW tetrose · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 95¢$167.6k
HIGH tetrose · 130d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 94.1¢$28.2k
MED tetrose · 135d ago
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 66¢$11.8k
LOW tetrose · 139d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 32¢$31.1k
LOW tetrose · 151d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
BUY Yes @ 39¢$22.2k
LOW tetrose · 151d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 66¢$12.1k
LOW tetrose · 152d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 67¢$12.3k
LOW tetrose · 152d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
BUY Yes @ 22¢$17.7k
LOW tetrose · 152d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 24¢$23.6k
LOW tetrose · 152d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 68¢$11.5k
LOW tetrose · 153d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 21¢$14.0k
LOW tetrose · 154d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
BUY Yes @ 19¢$10.2k
LOW tetrose · 156d ago
Will Trump visit China by May 15?excluded
BUY Yes @ 92.8¢$13.9k
LOW tetrose · 166d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 16¢$16.3k
LOW tetrose · 168d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?called
SELL No @ 61¢$12.1k
LOW tetrose · 168d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?missed
BUY Yes @ 8¢$12.9k
LOW tetrose · 169d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL Yes @ 65¢$10.5k
LOW tetrose · 175d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
BUY Yes @ 8¢$11.3k
LOW tetrose · 177d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$49.6k
LOW tetrose · 183d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 90¢$13.4k
LOW tetrose · 183d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$29.9k
LOW tetrose · 185d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.4¢$41.6k
LOW tetrose · 187d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$19.8k
LOW tetrose · 189d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$19.7k
LOW tetrose · 191d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$26.6k
LOW tetrose · 192d ago
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY No @ 79¢$10.4k
LOW tetrose · 193d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?missed
SELL Yes @ 82¢$23.4k
LOW tetrose · 203d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?called
BUY Yes @ 54¢$16.2k
LOW tetrose · 205d ago
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?missed
SELL Yes @ 30¢$11.4k
LOW tetrose · 253d ago
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?called
BUY Yes @ 39¢$10.9k
LOW tetrose · 261d ago
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?missed
SELL Yes @ 35¢$12.1k
LOW tetrose · 263d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?called
BUY Yes @ 74¢$37.0k
LOW tetrose · 271d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?missed
BUY No @ 24¢$14.0k
LOW tetrose · 271d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?missed
SELL Yes @ 78¢$47.1k
MED tetrose · 271d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?missed
SELL Yes @ 71¢$14.5k
LOW tetrose · 272d ago
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 79¢$11.1k
LOW tetrose · 278d ago
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?called
BUY Yes @ 52¢$11.3k
LOW tetrose · 278d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 65¢$44.1k
LOW tetrose · 281d ago
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 11¢$12.8k
LOW tetrose · 292d ago
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 63¢$12.1k
LOW tetrose · 293d ago
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 91.2¢$13.8k
LOW tetrose · 293d ago

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