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+$1,728Yes · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $45.2k−$480Yes · avg 93¢ → 87¢ · $6,960−$6,528Yes · avg 64¢ → 9¢ · $1,059+$201No · avg 78¢ → 96.4¢ · $1,052+$33Yes · avg 77¢ → 80¢ · $657−$32Yes · avg 2.8¢ → 2.5¢ · $241
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 9.7 wins, so it did +12.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +6.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+12.2 pts
Called / graded
11/11
Expected from price
9.7
Flagged volume
$829.9k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$42k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Government shutdown on Saturday? at 30¢) and the edge is +6.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 30% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=10
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$48.0k
Last 30 days −$9,948 · $2.23M volume · 771 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$102.6k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$56.3k
Closed-position win rate
93%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
308d
68 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.6 pts |
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.1 | +28.8 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +14.5 pts |
| Politics | 6 | 6 | 5.7 | +5.0 pts |
History
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