Car

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did -16.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$32.7kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $88.3k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$2,052No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $65.2k Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?−$1,349No · avg 92.6¢ → 90.5¢ · $58.1k · 1 proven with, 0 against Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?+$90No · avg 97.2¢ → 97.6¢ · $25.0k Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$32.7kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $22.8k Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?+$172No · avg 76¢ → 76¢ · $21.9k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?−$109No · avg 95¢ → 94.5¢ · $20.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?+$303No · avg 80¢ → 82¢ · $17.8k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

-16.1 pts

Called / graded

3/6

Expected from price

4.0

Flagged volume

$4.22M

Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$31k

6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? at 91¢) and the edge is -21.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 8% · n=1

20–40¢

0% vs 20% · n=1

80–100¢

75% vs 92% · n=4

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$1.52M

Last 30 days +$2,918 · $187.90M volume · 259,474 trades · since Feb 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$64.1k 2.3× usual	100%	2h ago	pending
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢	$10.2k	96%	3d ago	pending
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$19.2k	96%	72d ago	called
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$17.9k	95%	73d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 7.1× usual	100%	88d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.5× usual	100%	94d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$199.6k 7.1× usual	100%	94d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$19.9k	100%	95d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 7.1× usual	0%	128d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$28.4k	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$199.6k 7.1× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$99.5k 3.5× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.9¢	$21.8k	98%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.4¢	$10.6k	95%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 90.1¢	$79.5k 2.8× usual	90%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$16.9k	82%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 61¢	$10.9k	61%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$22.4k	59%	132d ago	excluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$100.7k 3.6× usual	0%	138d ago	excluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$11.7k	78%	142d ago	called
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$69.8k 2.5× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$39.7k	99%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$49.5k	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$99.4k 3.5× usual	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$99.2k 3.5× usual	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 99.5¢	$255.7k 9.0× usual	1%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.5× usual	100%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$99.9k 3.5× usual	100%	144d ago	excluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$22.2k	100%	165d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$14.7k	99%	165d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$72.1k 2.6× usual	0%	167d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$10.9k	87%	168d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$89.1k 3.2× usual	100%	176d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$44.3k	100%	178d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$111.0k 3.9× usual	100%	184d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$10.9k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$22.1k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$214.7k 7.6× usual	0%	189d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$29.9k	100%	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$33.5k	100%	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢	$12.7k	98%	190d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$49.8k	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$42.4k	0%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$42.4k	100%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$99.7k 3.5× usual	100%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$14.8k	100%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢	$19.4k	60%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$49.8k	100%	199d ago	excluded
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$45.5k	0%	200d ago	excluded
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$36.5k	100%	201d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$18.4k	92%	205d ago	missed
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$10.4k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 59¢	$11.8k	59%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$10.0k	77%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 93.2¢	$21.4k	7%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$12.5k	89%	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢	$18.7k	2%	257d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90.8¢	$14.5k	91%	259d ago	called
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢	$154.8k 5.5× usual	99%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$147.3k 5.2× usual	0%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$66.5k 2.4× usual	100%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.5¢	$21.9k	94%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 52¢	$10.0k	52%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 35¢	$11.0k	35%	268d ago	missed
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$35.9k	100%	293d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94.6¢	$10.4k	95%	293d ago	called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$33.3k	100%	294d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$89.5k 3.2× usual	100%	331d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 92¢	$12.3k	8%	371d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 80¢	$11.1k	20%	443d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$13.1k	48%	552d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL Yes @ 74¢	$10.2k	26%	589d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY Yes @ 76¢	$28.1k	76%	589d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$15.9k	77%	591d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$10.5k	68%	598d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢	$19.0k	36%	601d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$18.0k	67%	601d ago	missed

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	0	0.2	-20.1 pts
Other	5	3	3.8	-15.3 pts

Car

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

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