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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 9.1 wins, so it did +7.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +6.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.8 pts
Called / graded
10/11
Expected from price
9.1
Flagged volume
$645.4k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$15k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July at 78¢) and the edge is +6.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 18% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 78% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$15.5k
Last 30 days +$9,099 · $1.75M volume · 252 trades · since Jan 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$15.5k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$12
Closed-position win rate
82%
62 closed
Wallet age · markets
643d
61 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 7 | 6.7 | +4.0 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +19.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +16.3 pts |
History
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