Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$21
Return on staked
+1.9%
Bets
10/11 won
Edge vs price
+7.8 pts ±9.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +4.4 pts (4/5). Newer half: +10.7 pts (6/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 03, 22:48 ESTOct 02, 17:05 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 92¢ | called | 22d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 89¢ | called | 37d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 84¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 96¢ | called | 74d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 97¢ | called | 79d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 78¢ | called | 108d ago |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | 84¢ | called | 108d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 92¢ | called | 153d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 182d ago |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | 89¢ | called | 198d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 18¢ | missed | 235d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.