← Wallets
+$3,606No · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $92.4k+$445No · avg 91.9¢ → 92.5¢ · $67.5k+$1,782Yes · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $53.4k−$2,560No · avg 85¢ → 80¢ · $47.8k+$3,901Yes · avg 54¢ → 66¢ · $21.6k · 2 proven with, 0 against−$2,846No · avg 70¢ → 62¢ · $21.1k+$518No · avg 90.6¢ → 93¢ · $19.9k+$687No · avg 80¢ → 82¢ · $19.9k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +0.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.3 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$1.39M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$23k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? at 55¢) and the edge is -6.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=3
40–60¢
100% vs 55% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 69% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 83% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$218.5k
Last 30 days −$43.2k · $33.39M volume · 38,831 trades · since Jan 28, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.29M
Open P&L · 78 positions
−$63.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
269d
874 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.3 pts |
History
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