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What this means. A wallet put $14.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$14.8k
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ · 14,906 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
What happened
Wallet Valen9 took Yes (sell) for $14.8k at an average 99.6¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $14.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.6¢
- Implied odds
- 0.4%
- Size
- $14.8k
- Placed
- Feb 08, 13:21 EST
- Market close
- Jan 25, 09:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Valen9
- Tx
- 0x2a4443c2…
This wallet's graded record
4/8+0.3 pts
expected 4.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.5k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $46.6k | excluded |