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The Spirit of Ukraine>UM

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 11.7 wins, so it did +2.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?−$5,467No · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $406.3kUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?+$4,255No · avg 97.2¢ → 98.6¢ · $300.5kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?+$2,324No · avg 91.5¢ → 93.5¢ · $108.3kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+$8,781No · avg 62¢ → 88¢ · $29.7k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?+$2,200Yes · avg 79¢ → 86¢ · $27.8kWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$266Yes · avg 82¢ → 83¢ · $15.4kWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?+$304Yes · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $14.5kIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?+$274No · avg 92.4¢ → 94.5¢ · $12.5k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+2.3 pts
Called / graded
12/14
Expected from price
11.7
Flagged volume
$4.13M
Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$5k
14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$21k$0$1k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 61¢) and the edge is -0.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 3% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
80–100¢
92% vs 92% · n=12
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.82M
Last 30 days +$34.7k · $137.55M volume · 176,121 trades · since Sep 28, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.01M
Open P&L · 145 positions
−$161.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1851d
1360 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other121010.1-1.1 pts
Politics110.9+6.8 pts
Sports110.6+39.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $15.1k1% 2d agopending
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $25.4k79% 2d agopending
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $59.6k
2.5× usual
99% 37d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $13.2k100% 38d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $13.1k1% 39d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $37.4k0% 57d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $15.0k1% 58d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $28.7k0% 59d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $25.4k0% 60d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $10.3k99% 67d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $24.9k89% 68d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $20.9k85% 72d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $51.8k
2.1× usual
0% 72d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $11.8k96% 75d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $31.1k99% 75d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $116.0k
4.8× usual
0% 75d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $11.8k98% 79d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $29.2k3% 80d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $36.1k98% 85d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $40.3k92% 86d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $25.7k94% 87d agocalled
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $12.8k97% 87d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $33.7k98% 87d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $30.9k97% 87d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $16.6k89% 87d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $16.4k1% 88d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $24.6k88% 89d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $43.6k1% 89d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $20.5k89% 92d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $16.3k1% 92d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $16.8k88% 93d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $48.8k
2.0× usual
1% 93d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $49.6k
2.1× usual
99% 100d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $61.0k
2.5× usual
98% 101d agoexcluded
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Spain @ 99.5¢ $20.2k100% 101d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $23.2k88% 102d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $22.0k96% 102d agocalled
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 61¢ $10.5k61% 102d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $20.6k85% 102d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $13.9k90% 103d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $31.9k94% 103d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?MED BUY No @ 92.5¢ $44.0k92% 104d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $23.7k89% 104d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $75.4k
3.1× usual
90% 107d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $54.5k
2.3× usual
94% 109d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $37.9k0% 109d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $79.4k
3.3× usual
0% 109d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $67.3k
2.8× usual
0% 110d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $12.1k87% 110d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $21.6k0% 110d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $12.2k0% 111d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $57.5k
2.4× usual
81% 111d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $91.2k
3.8× usual
0% 111d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $22.3k82% 111d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $134.2k
5.6× usual
99% 112d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $132.8k
5.5× usual
0% 112d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $19.5k99% 112d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $96.9k
4.0× usual
0% 113d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $102.3k
4.2× usual
0% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $23.8k99% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $14.4k0% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $18.8k99% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $18.6k98% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $36.9k97% 115d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $19.1k0% 115d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $31.3k97% 123d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED BUY No @ 94.5¢ $64.2k
2.7× usual
94% 126d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $20.4k100% 129d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $13.0k100% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $10.8k85% 135d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $18.2k97% 135d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $29.4k92% 136d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $54.6k
2.3× usual
91% 137d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $10.2k72% 138d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $40.4k76% 145d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $21.7k98% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $199.6k
8.3× usual
100% 145d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $16.0k71% 146d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $18.6k98% 146d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $85.6k
3.5× usual
98% 150d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $74.0k
3.1× usual
1% 151d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 95¢ $13.6k5% 158d agomissed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $33.1k94% 161d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $54.0k
2.2× usual
91% 165d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $17.9k84% 166d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ $15.5k3% 173d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $27.8k96% 173d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $67.2k
2.8× usual
92% 177d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ $136.5k
5.6× usual
0% 179d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $21.8k85% 180d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $18.6k92% 180d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $64.3k
2.7× usual
97% 184d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $10.4k99% 185d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $11.1k85% 185d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $37.1k98% 192d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $34.7k100% 193d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $19.1k97% 196d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $12.9k1% 196d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $12.9k100% 201d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $10.5k99% 218d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $16.2k98% 218d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $13.9k100% 220d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $14.0k99% 243d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $44.9k100% 243d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $21.9k100% 251d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $28.7k0% 257d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $48.9k
2.0× usual
99% 262d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $28.5k95% 298d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.1× usual
0% 298d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $22.2k97% 317d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $27.6k92% 330d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 96.5¢ $55.4k
2.3× usual
97% 353d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ $22.2k3% 364d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.2¢ $14.3k93% 364d agocalled
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?pending
SELL No @ 99.5¢$15.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 2d ago
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?pending
BUY Yes @ 79¢$25.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 2d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$59.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 37d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$13.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 38d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$13.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 39d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$37.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 57d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$15.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 58d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$28.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 59d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$25.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 60d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$10.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 67d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?called
BUY No @ 89¢$24.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 68d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?called
BUY No @ 85¢$20.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 72d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$51.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 72d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 96.4¢$11.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 75d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$31.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 75d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$116.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 75d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$11.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 79d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 97.5¢$29.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 80d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$36.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 85d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 92¢$40.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 86d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 94¢$25.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 87d ago
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$12.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 87d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$33.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 87d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$30.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 87d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 89¢$16.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 87d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$16.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 88d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 88¢$24.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 89d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$43.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 89d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 89¢$20.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 92d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$16.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 92d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 88¢$16.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 93d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$48.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 93d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$49.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 100d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$61.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 101d ago
France vs. Spain: Team to Advanceexcluded
BUY Spain @ 99.5¢$20.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 101d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 88¢$23.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 102d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 96¢$22.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 102d ago
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
BUY No @ 61¢$10.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 102d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called
BUY No @ 85¢$20.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 102d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 90¢$13.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 103d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 94¢$31.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 103d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 92.5¢$44.0k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 104d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 89¢$23.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 104d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 90¢$75.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 107d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 94¢$54.5k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 109d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$37.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 109d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$79.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 109d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$67.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 110d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 87¢$12.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 110d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$21.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 110d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$12.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 111d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 81¢$57.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 111d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$91.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 111d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 82¢$22.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 111d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$134.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 112d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$132.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 112d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$19.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 112d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$96.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 113d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$102.3k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$23.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$14.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$18.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$18.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?called
BUY No @ 97¢$36.9k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 115d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$19.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 115d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$31.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 123d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 94.5¢$64.2k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 126d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$20.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 129d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$13.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 85¢$10.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 135d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 96.8¢$18.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 135d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 92¢$29.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 136d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 91¢$54.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 137d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 72¢$10.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 138d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 76¢$40.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 145d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$21.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 145d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$199.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 145d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 71¢$16.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 146d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.8¢$18.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 146d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$85.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 150d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$74.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 151d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 95¢$13.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 158d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called
BUY No @ 94¢$33.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 161d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 91¢$54.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 165d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 84¢$17.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 166d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97.2¢$15.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 173d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?called
BUY No @ 96¢$27.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 173d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?called
BUY No @ 92¢$67.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 177d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$136.5k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 179d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?called
BUY No @ 85¢$21.8k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 180d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called
BUY No @ 92¢$18.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 180d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?called
BUY No @ 97¢$64.3k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 184d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$10.4k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 185d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called
BUY No @ 85¢$11.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 185d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$37.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 192d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$34.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 193d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?called
BUY No @ 97¢$19.1k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 196d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$12.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 196d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$12.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 201d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$10.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 218d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$16.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 218d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$13.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 220d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$14.0k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 243d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$44.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 243d ago
Government shutdown on Saturday?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$21.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 251d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$28.7k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 257d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$48.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 262d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 95¢$28.5k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 298d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 298d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 96.9¢$22.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 317d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 92¢$27.6k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 330d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 96.5¢$55.4k
MED The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 353d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 96.6¢$22.2k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 364d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 93.2¢$14.3k
LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 364d ago

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