debased

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 11.4 wins, so it did +12.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +10.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$29.3kNo · avg 50¢ → 56¢ · $281.8k Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$29.3kYes · avg 50¢ → 44¢ · $223.2k Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?+$3,605No · avg 82¢ → 95.5¢ · $25.9k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$202Yes · avg 79¢ → 80¢ · $18.3k Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$504No · avg 70¢ → 74¢ · $11.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$140No · avg 96.9¢ → 98.2¢ · $9,893 Plague pandemic in 2026?+$280No · avg 95.1¢ → 98.2¢ · $8,732 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$95No · avg 93.4¢ → 94.5¢ · $8,399 · 1 proven with, 0 against

Price-adjusted edge

+12.5 pts

Called / graded

13/13

Expected from price

11.4

Flagged volume

$7.76M

Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.9 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$49k

13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? at 68¢) and the edge is +10.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

60–80¢

100% vs 72% · n=2

80–100¢

100% vs 90% · n=11

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$1.36M

Last 30 days +$57.2k · $510.49M volume · 901,349 trades · since Apr 04, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	4	4	3.2	+20.5 pts
Sports	6	6	5.4	+10.4 pts
Economy	2	2	1.9	+6.6 pts
Politics	1	1	1.0	+4.8 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢	$10.8k	99%	33d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$22.1k	100%	43d ago	excluded
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY No @ 82¢	$49.4k	82%	108d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$18.7k	84%	108d ago	called
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$125.9k 4.4× usual	100%	109d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$107.6k 3.8× usual	99%	110d ago	excluded
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$98.4k 3.4× usual	100%	113d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$32.6k	98%	116d ago	excluded
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$106.2k 3.7× usual	98%	116d ago	excluded
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$13.9k	100%	116d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY No @ 94.7¢	$42.1k	95%	116d ago	called
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$11.0k	1%	120d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$29.2k	98%	121d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$24.0k	98%	124d ago	excluded
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢	$15.6k	94%	125d ago	called
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$39.8k	100%	125d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$149.8k 5.2× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$39.9k	100%	128d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$55.5k	0%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$101.7k 3.6× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$256.9k 9.0× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$10.1k	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$25.1k	0%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.9¢	$13.8k	93%	130d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$24.0k	98%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢	$15.0k	76%	131d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$14.7k	99%	131d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 91.7¢	$91.7k 3.2× usual	92%	132d ago	called
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$35.1k	99%	132d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 91.6¢	$32.1k	92%	133d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$41.3k	98%	134d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98¢	$12.1k	2%	134d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢	$20.4k	1%	135d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢	$38.5k	2%	136d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$15.0k	97%	141d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$12.9k	98%	142d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$28.5k	97%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$69.6k 2.4× usual	100%	143d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$18.5k	68%	151d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$41.5k	1%	155d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$19.0k	95%	156d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$23.3k	99%	156d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$52.2k	98%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$99.7k 3.5× usual	100%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$24.7k	100%	164d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢	$13.4k	97%	164d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$519.1k 18.1× usual	100%	167d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$138.2k 4.8× usual	100%	167d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$55.5k	0%	167d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢	$31.5k	2%	169d ago	excluded
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$70.0k 2.4× usual	100%	172d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.5× usual	0%	176d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 96.3¢	$14.7k	4%	176d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$16.6k	0%	176d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$21.3k	1%	176d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$66.6k 2.3× usual	100%	178d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$91.9k 3.2× usual	0%	180d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$356.4k 12.5× usual	100%	180d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$19.9k	100%	182d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$38.8k	0%	183d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$27.6k	1%	183d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$67.4k 2.4× usual	0%	184d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$18.1k	0%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.6¢	$10.5k	97%	185d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$12.9k	86%	186d ago	called
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	0%	186d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 7.0× usual	100%	187d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	100%	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$16.3k	100%	190d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$13.9k	88%	190d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$13.6k	92%	191d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢	$17.6k	2%	193d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$10.6k	95%	194d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$12.4k	98%	195d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$79.8k 2.8× usual	100%	197d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$251.4k 8.8× usual	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	0%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$49.8k	100%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$49.8k	0%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$29.9k	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$35.0k	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$195.6k 6.8× usual	0%	199d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.9¢	$10.4k	2%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$39.8k	100%	199d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.1¢	$10.1k	2%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢	$49.7k	1%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$55.2k	1%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$58.2k 2.0× usual	0%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$69.7k 2.4× usual	100%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$19.9k	100%	200d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢	$19.6k	98%	203d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$10.4k	1%	204d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$35.2k	95%	206d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$53.1k	100%	207d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$11.0k	1%	208d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$44.6k	93%	209d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$21.7k	1%	211d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$11.5k	98%	214d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 90¢	$22.5k	10%	214d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 75¢	$28.8k	75%	214d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$13.9k	98%	218d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 86¢	$12.0k	14%	224d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$39.3k	100%	235d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$25.7k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.5¢	$15.1k	3%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢	$13.4k	97%	237d ago	called
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$46.6k	100%	257d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$221.7k 7.7× usual	0%	262d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$362.9k 12.7× usual	0%	262d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$35.5k	0%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$64.0k 2.2× usual	100%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$12.7k	0%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$26.6k	100%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢	$11.8k	91%	266d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$13.6k	99%	267d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$11.2k	100%	268d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$26.5k	0%	268d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$107.1k 3.7× usual	99%	268d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$13.3k	0%	269d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢	$22.7k	1%	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢	$60.5k 2.1× usual	1%	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢	$11.0k	99%	272d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.9¢	$44.6k	97%	276d ago	called
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢	$11.1k	95%	278d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 95.4¢	$19.7k	5%	283d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 95.4¢	$12.2k	5%	283d ago	missed
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$19.9k	99%	287d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 91¢	$14.7k	9%	289d ago	missed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$13.5k	90%	291d ago	called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$38.6k	0%	293d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$75.0k 2.6× usual	0%	293d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$78.8k 2.8× usual	0%	294d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$59.8k 2.1× usual	0%	294d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$24.8k	0%	318d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$35.6k	0%	330d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$10.4k	100%	330d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$132.4k 4.6× usual	0%	330d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$11.6k	100%	331d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$29.4k	98%	352d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$110.6k 3.9× usual	100%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$120.9k 4.2× usual	100%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$12.8k	0%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 94.4¢	$48.1k	94%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 93.3¢	$59.3k 2.1× usual	93%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 92.7¢	$34.7k	93%	358d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.1¢	$10.9k	93%	366d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$37.1k	87%	380d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$10.3k	87%	397d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢	$10.4k	23%	413d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 73¢	$16.2k	27%	465d ago	missed

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