Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$200
Return on staked
+15.4%
Bets
13/13 won
Edge vs price
+12.5 pts ±8.9
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +12.7 pts (6/6). Newer half: +12.4 pts (7/7).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 05, 19:00 ESTJul 07, 13:56 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 82¢ | called | 109d ago |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 84¢ | called | 109d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 95¢ | called | 117d ago |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 94¢ | called | 125d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 76¢ | called | 131d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 92¢ | called | 132d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 92¢ | called | 133d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 68¢ | called | 151d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 97¢ | called | 165d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 86¢ | called | 186d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 88¢ | called | 191d ago |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 95¢ | called | 278d ago |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | 90¢ | called | 291d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.