d1k21

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$13.0kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $35.0k Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$13.0kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $9,042 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$4,250Yes · avg 44¢ → 93.5¢ · $8,004 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$31No · avg 95.9¢ → 95.2¢ · $4,815 Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?+$23No · avg 96.3¢ → 97¢ · $3,232 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?+$51No · avg 94.8¢ → 96.5¢ · $2,754 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$1Yes · avg 96¢ → 96¢ · $2,623 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?−$1,662Yes · avg 26¢ → 6.5¢ · $556

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$294.1k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$93.2k

Last 30 days +$209 · $50.49M volume · 41,430 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.89M

Open P&L · 13 positions

−$3,746

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

1017d

2373 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$11.5k	99%	37d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$14.9k	99%	38d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$21.6k	100%	150d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$20.0k	100%	194d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$27.5k	100%	198d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	100%	207d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$11.7k	98%	218d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$14.9k	99%	218d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$14.7k	98%	218d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 96¢	$17.8k	4%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$15.2k	92%	238d ago	excluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$17.8k	100%	257d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$45.1k 2.5× usual	100%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$16.8k	100%	266d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$24.7k	100%	353d ago	excluded

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$11.5k

LOW d1k21 · 37d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$14.9k

LOW d1k21 · 38d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$21.6k

LOW d1k21 · 150d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$20.0k

LOW d1k21 · 194d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$27.5k

LOW d1k21 · 198d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW d1k21 · 207d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 97.5¢$11.7k

LOW d1k21 · 218d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$14.9k

LOW d1k21 · 218d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 97.9¢$14.7k

LOW d1k21 · 218d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 96¢$17.8k

LOW d1k21 · 238d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 92¢$15.2k

LOW d1k21 · 238d ago

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$17.8k

LOW d1k21 · 257d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$45.1k

LOW d1k21 · 263d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$16.8k

LOW d1k21 · 266d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$24.7k

LOW d1k21 · 353d ago

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