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+$20No · avg 84¢ → 85¢ · $1,700+$270No · avg 65¢ → 78¢ · $1,570+$287Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 1.4¢ · $405+$227Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 1.1¢ · $345+$197Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 1.1¢ · $315+$301Yes · avg 0¢ → 1.9¢ · $301+$183No · avg 23¢ → 76¢ · $262+$251Yes · avg 0¢ → 18¢ · $251
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did +16.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+16.1 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$223.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$215.9k
Last 30 days +$596 · $10.19M volume · 14,615 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$204.9k
Open P&L · 52 positions
−$830
Closed-position win rate
70%
366 closed
Wallet age · markets
295d
333 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | +16.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $30.4k | excluded |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $21.5k | called |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 94.3¢ | $19.6k | called |
 New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $12.6k | called |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $26.8k | called |
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