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What this means. A wallet put $21.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$21.5k
BUY No @ 86¢ · 25,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x6276…2dd9 took No (buy) for $21.5k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $21.5k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−614American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 86.0%
- Size
- $21.5k
- Placed
- Jan 25, 23:10 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x6276…2dd9
- Tx
- 0xbc189bba…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+16.1 pts
expected 2.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +14 ptsNo price · entry 86¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $27.9k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $44.7k | called |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $17.7k | missed |