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emcor

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-6.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$619.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$163.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.94M volume · 4,415 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$141.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$22.2k
Closed-position win rate
68%
308 closed
Wallet age · markets
374d
297 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.1-6.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 40¢ $10.1k60% 239d agocalled
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 40¢ $10.1k40% 240d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $10.1k1% 240d agoexcluded
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $17.7k6% 267d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?MED SELL No @ 60¢ $47.8k
2.7× usual
40% 272d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $32.9k80% 278d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?MED SELL No @ 85¢ $25.5k15% 279d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $10.8k14% 279d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?MED SELL No @ 86¢ $31.6k14% 280d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?MED BUY No @ 84¢ $83.3k
4.7× usual
84% 283d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?MED SELL No @ 76¢ $25.3k24% 283d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 70¢ $10.1k30% 283d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?MED SELL No @ 83¢ $25.4k17% 285d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $20.3k84% 286d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 55¢ $36.1k
2.0× usual
45% 286d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?MED SELL No @ 50¢ $57.6k
3.3× usual
50% 287d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 55¢ $15.8k45% 288d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 64¢ $17.9k64% 290d agomissed
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?LOW SELL No @ 65¢ $18.0k35% 290d agocalled
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?LOW BUY No @ 61¢ $14.4k61% 292d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $11.4k60% 292d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?LOW SELL No @ 77¢ $11.4k23% 292d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 58¢ $22.3k58% 293d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 46¢ $14.4k46% 293d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $12.9k78% 294d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 48¢ $10.9k48% 294d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.4¢ $15.5k94% 353d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?called
SELL No @ 40¢$10.1k
LOW emcor · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 40¢$10.1k
LOW emcor · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$10.1k
LOW emcor · 240d ago
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 94¢$17.7k
LOW emcor · 267d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 60¢$47.8k
MED emcor · 272d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 80¢$32.9k
LOW emcor · 278d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 85¢$25.5k
MED emcor · 279d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 86¢$10.8k
LOW emcor · 279d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 86¢$31.6k
MED emcor · 280d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 84¢$83.3k
MED emcor · 283d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 76¢$25.3k
MED emcor · 283d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 70¢$10.1k
LOW emcor · 283d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 83¢$25.4k
MED emcor · 285d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 84¢$20.3k
LOW emcor · 286d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 55¢$36.1k
LOW emcor · 286d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 50¢$57.6k
MED emcor · 287d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 55¢$15.8k
LOW emcor · 288d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 64¢$17.9k
LOW emcor · 290d ago
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?called
SELL No @ 65¢$18.0k
LOW emcor · 290d ago
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?missed
BUY No @ 61¢$14.4k
LOW emcor · 292d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 60¢$11.4k
LOW emcor · 292d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?called
SELL No @ 77¢$11.4k
LOW emcor · 292d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 58¢$22.3k
LOW emcor · 293d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 46¢$14.4k
LOW emcor · 293d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 78¢$12.9k
LOW emcor · 294d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed
BUY No @ 48¢$10.9k
LOW emcor · 294d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 94.4¢$15.5k
LOW emcor · 353d ago

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