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Bammer

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -19.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-19.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$804.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±39.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$252.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.44M volume · 3,439 trades · since Mar 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$252.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
62%
63 closed
Wallet age · markets
587d
56 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.2-19.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 69¢ $55.8k
2.1× usual
31% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 73¢ $33.5k27% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?MED SELL No @ 87¢ $27.7k13% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $26.7k92% 248d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $20.9k86% 252d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $51.3k99% 256d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $22.9k99% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $158.0k
5.8× usual
99% 259d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢ $23.1k3% 260d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97¢ $20.4k3% 260d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $17.6k2% 260d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $19.3k98% 261d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $66.5k
2.4× usual
96% 262d agoexcluded
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ $10.2k3% 266d agoexcluded
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $44.7k96% 266d agocalled
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $39.6k72% 286d agocalled
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $11.4k69% 287d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 81¢ $33.4k19% 287d agomissed
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $11.7k78% 290d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $109.5k
4.0× usual
100% 318d agoexcluded

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