Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$248
Return on staked
-31.0%
Bets
4/8 won
Edge vs price
+0.3 pts ±14.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 07, 17:04 EDTAug 05, 10:11 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 81¢ | called | 80d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 62¢ | missed | 84d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 77¢ | called | 153d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 55¢ | called | 155d ago |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 14¢ | missed | 156d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 8¢ | missed | 178d ago |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | 15¢ | missed | 198d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 86¢ | called | 200d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.