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0x7131…29cc

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -94.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-94.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.85M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$110.9k
Last 30 days +$520 · $21.87M volume · 8,111 trades · since Jun 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$152.4k
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$14.2k
Closed-position win rate
72%
364 closed
Wallet age · markets
505d
335 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.9-94.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $11.6k90% 84d agoexcluded
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $12.3k99% 87d agoexcluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.0k0% 87d agoexcluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 89d agoexcluded
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $26.2k81% 91d agoexcluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $79.8k
2.8× usual
0% 95d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $13.6k0% 110d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ $46.2k96% 131d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $28.2k94% 155d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $848.8k
30.1× usual
100% 168d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k0% 180d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ $24.5k1% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $132.7k
4.7× usual
0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $41.5k0% 202d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $132.7k
4.7× usual
0% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.1¢ $19.0k5% 267d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ $28.9k89% 267d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ $19.1k4% 280d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 93.7¢ $63.6k
2.3× usual
94% 285d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.7¢ $18.7k96% 286d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $37.2k7% 368d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $18.4k92% 373d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED SELL No @ 92¢ $82.4k
2.9× usual
8% 403d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $18.4k8% 403d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $52.2k87% 456d agocalled

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