← Wallets
+$33.2kNo · avg 50¢ → 83¢ · $83.2k+$7,354No · avg 81¢ → 91.1¢ · $67.5k+$225No · avg 94.5¢ → 95.5¢ · $20.9k+$195No · avg 97.2¢ → 98.2¢ · $18.3k−$33.2kYes · avg 50¢ → 17¢ · $16.8k+$5,186Yes · avg 44¢ → 66¢ · $15.3k · 2 proven with, 0 against−$100LSU · avg 56¢ → 56¢ · $11.1k−$70Texas · avg 59¢ → 58¢ · $8,190
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -14.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-14.2 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$1.47M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$47k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept at 88¢) and the edge is -20.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 25% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$319.8k
Last 30 days +$37.1k · $25.04M volume · 18,339 trades · since Sep 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.57M
Open P&L · 60 positions
−$365.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
773d
1261 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +12.0 pts |
| Other | 4 | 0 | 0.8 | -20.7 pts |
History
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