Parz1vaI

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 8.6 wins, so it did +18.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +12.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$880No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $28.7k Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,080No · avg 69¢ → 72¢ · $22.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+$2,121No · avg 69¢ → 78¢ · $19.4k Iran leadership change by December 31?−$696No · avg 89¢ → 86¢ · $17.7k Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?+$4,722Yes · avg 65¢ → 90.6¢ · $17.0k US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?+$3,483No · avg 74¢ → 93.5¢ · $16.4k France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?+$472No · avg 89¢ → 91.5¢ · $16.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?+$1,085No · avg 76¢ → 84¢ · $10.8k

Price-adjusted edge

+18.3 pts

Called / graded

11/13

Expected from price

8.6

Flagged volume

$1.17M

Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.5 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$102k

13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 12¢) and the edge is +12.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

50% vs 8% · n=2

20–40¢

0% vs 35% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 74% · n=4

80–100¢

100% vs 86% · n=6

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$800.9k

Last 30 days +$50.7k · $72.10M volume · 110,141 trades · since Aug 03, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	4	3	2.1	+21.7 pts
Politics	2	2	1.4	+28.1 pts
Other	7	6	5.0	+13.6 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
James Madison vs. Appalachian State	LOW BUY James Madison @ 88¢	$17.7k	88%	1d ago	excluded
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$10.9k	97%	24d ago	excluded
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢	$12.3k	2%	35d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$11.1k	77%	36d ago	called
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima	LOW BUY Taylor Fritz @ 64¢	$32.6k 2.2× usual	64%	63d ago	excluded
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢	$12.2k	47%	83d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$12.3k	100%	89d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$44.9k 3.0× usual	84%	104d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$18.7k	82%	104d ago	called
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$12.3k	98%	104d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$15.0k	100%	110d ago	excluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$15.4k	77%	110d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢	$14.3k	12%	112d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$11.3k	81%	114d ago	called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 65¢	$24.7k	35%	114d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$27.2k	99%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 67¢	$15.9k	33%	131d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 48¢	$12.5k	48%	132d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$10.5k	16%	138d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$49.8k 3.3× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$19.9k	100%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$39.9k 2.7× usual	100%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$49.7k 3.3× usual	99%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢	$13.3k	29%	144d ago	called
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢	$12.8k	64%	144d ago	missed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 20¢	$11.6k	20%	145d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$11.0k	82%	147d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢	$18.6k	37%	153d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$16.0k	99%	154d ago	excluded
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$17.3k	0%	160d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 95¢	$14.2k	5%	164d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 96.4¢	$12.0k	4%	168d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$18.8k	47%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢	$15.3k	47%	169d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$11.4k	76%	169d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢	$17.1k	57%	170d ago	called
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$13.8k	92%	174d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$14.1k	94%	174d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 94.3¢	$18.8k	6%	176d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$23.0k	92%	176d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$19.9k	100%	177d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢	$39.6k 2.6× usual	41%	178d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$15.0k	100%	178d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	MED BUY No @ 96.3¢	$49.2k 3.3× usual	96%	179d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY Yes @ 58¢	$41.8k 2.8× usual	58%	179d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	MED SELL No @ 96.2¢	$29.9k 2.0× usual	4%	179d ago	missed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 67¢	$10.4k	67%	179d ago	called
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 92.4¢	$11.0k	92%	180d ago	called
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢	$10.1k	3%	181d ago	excluded
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$10.8k	98%	183d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$12.9k	43%	183d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$14.6k	1%	185d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$12.2k	1%	189d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$13.5k	90%	190d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢	$11.0k	50%	190d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 95.7¢	$10.2k	4%	197d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	198d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢	$10.2k	21%	199d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢	$15.4k	1%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$12.1k	78%	199d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$15.0k	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢	$15.5k	2%	206d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$21.8k	1%	295d ago	excluded

Parz1vaI

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