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What this means. A wallet put $43.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 50% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.0 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$43.0k
SELL Yes @ 50¢ · 86,327 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)2.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Arbguy took Yes (sell) for $43.0k at an average 50¢. At that price the market implied a 50% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $43.0k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 50¢
- Implied odds
- 50.2%
- Size
- $43.0k
- Placed
- Apr 01, 19:17 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 20:28 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Arbguy
- Tx
- 0x0278c582…
This wallet's graded record
15/23-0.0 pts
expected 15.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -50 ptsYes price · entry 50¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $870.2k 34.2× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |