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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -12.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.7 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$7.25M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$98k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 4¢) and the edge is -14.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 26% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$61.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $83.74M volume · 10,668 trades · since Dec 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$59.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,755
Closed-position win rate
82%
67 closed
Wallet age · markets
670d
67 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 0.6 | -12.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $24.2k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $13.8k | missed |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 3.5¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 3.5¢ | $17.5k | missed |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 3.6¢ | $31.7k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $4.00M 18.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $405.0k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $435.1k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $423.6k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $751.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
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