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What this means. A wallet put $17.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$17.5k
BUY Yes @ 3.5¢ · 500,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet ForesightOracle took Yes (buy) for $17.5k at an average 3.5¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $17.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 4¢ means
4%chance the market gave
+2757American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 3.5¢
- Implied odds
- 3.5%
- As American odds
- +2757 no vig
- Size
- $17.5k
- Placed
- Jun 23, 18:01 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 07, 01:08 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ForesightOracle
- Tx
- 0xbce4b138…
This wallet's graded record
0/5-12.7 pts
expected 0.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $89.9k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $11.0k | called |