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The-Joker

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -1.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$306.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$140.8k
Last 30 days −$4,331 · $9.39M volume · 16,474 trades · since Oct 14, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$580.1k
Open P&L · 53 positions
−$3,454
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
374d
2589 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy110.9+9.0 pts
Other100.1-12.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Bengals vs. TexansLOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ $11.6k58% 33d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 37d agoexcluded
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $61.8k
3.9× usual
100% 80d agoexcluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $19.9k100% 95d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $17.3k91% 101d agocalled
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $13.4k99% 109d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ $24.4k98% 130d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ $11.9k12% 131d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $16.0k100% 177d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $16.0k100% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $21.3k0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ $16.8k99% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.6¢ $10.3k99% 202d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $11.4k98% 207d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $10.5k97% 218d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $11.9k2% 218d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 234d agoexcluded

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