thefakenick

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did +35.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?−$300No · avg 78¢ → 76¢ · $19.5k Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?−$704No · avg 18¢ → 14¢ · $1,943 Will Bayer Leverkusen finish top 8 in UEL league phase?+$55Yes · avg 87¢ → 90¢ · $1,755 Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?+$129No · avg 89¢ → 96¢ · $1,727 Will Club América finish 2nd in the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?−$238No · avg 78¢ → 68¢ · $1,683 Will Juventus finish top 8 in UEL league phase?+$54Yes · avg 73¢ → 76¢ · $1,582 Will David Raya (Arsenal) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Premier League season?+$162No · avg 28¢ → 32¢ · $1,473 Will Bournemouth finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase?+$42No · avg 88¢ → 91¢ · $1,433

Price-adjusted edge

+35.1 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.3

Flagged volume

$32.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$61.6k

Last 30 days +$5,964 · $20.68M volume · 41,962 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$219.3k

Open P&L · 360 positions

+$3,700

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

673d

2445 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	2	1.3	+35.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$10.5k	66%	96d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢	$10.5k	64%	96d ago	called
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$11.7k	97%	109d ago	excluded

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 66¢$10.5k

LOW thefakenick · 96d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY Yes @ 64¢$10.5k

LOW thefakenick · 96d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 97.4¢$11.7k

LOW thefakenick · 109d ago

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