← Wallets
−$5,322Yes · avg 39¢ → 14¢ · $2,818+$68No · avg 79¢ → 86¢ · $898
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did -14.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-14.3 pts
Called / graded
5/9
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$1.45M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$44k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? at 80¢) and the edge is -18.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$894
Last 30 days −$1,056 · $38.94M volume · 14,329 trades · since Mar 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$385.4k
Open P&L · 46 positions
−$98.3k
Closed-position win rate
71%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
235d
397 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 3.2 | -4.6 pts |
| Other | 5 | 2 | 3.1 | -22.1 pts |
History
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