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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did +14.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +12.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+14.7 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$486.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$81k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 76¢) and the edge is +12.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$118.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $808.0k volume · 325 trades · since Jun 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$120.1k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,391
Closed-position win rate
91%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
119d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 5 | 4.3 | +14.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $28.9k | called |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $89.9k | excluded |
 Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $89.2k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 80¢ | $127.0k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $54.9k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $96.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x223318…